Tails, Droughts and Extremes
8th February 2016
The topic of this blog post follows from one of the talks we had last week on various research topics. The overall topic it came under
was Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and one section was Covariate Modelling in this context. The talk was given by
(director of STOR-i) said to us at the beginning of the year,
that serious study of the data is very important before leaping
into modelling.
The
other parts of the talks discussed what one should do when the data is correlated and methods to tackle this, as well as some example applications
such as flood risk modelling. The flood risk management required real thought about how to model the data. In particular, although two points may be
close together in a spatial sense, this does not mean that their flood risks and water levels will be similar, possibly due to being near a joining
of two rivers. A more appropriate measure of closeness must therefore be considered in order to take this into account. The idea settled upon was to
compare the centres of the areas from which that point recieves water. I found the whole talk very intersting, and EVT seems very interesting
mathematically as well as having some very important applications.